Download e-book for iPad: Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes, 14 by Patrick Humphreys

By Patrick Humphreys

ISBN-10: 0444865225

ISBN-13: 9780444865229

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Majone (1981) gives three main reasons that differentiate private decisions from public policies: First, in the public domain actions must be justified with seemingly objective arguments. Second, policies, unlike individual decisions, need t o gain a consensus in order to be viable. Finally, public choices are not 46 J. Lathrop and J. Linnerooth made by only one person. A consensus within andlor beyond an organization can be reached only with convincing and institutionally appropriate arguments.

Yet the appropriate response to that problem is either to use direct subjective judgment (as was used for ignition probabilities) or to make clear in the presentation of the results that such events are omitted. To do neither has the effect of understating, in contrast to the conservatism discussed earlier, the risks of the terminal. 58 J. Lathrop and J. Linnerooth 8. In Sum In reviewing the differences among the assessments, it becomes clear that there is a large degree of flexibility or freedom left t o engineering and analytic judgment.

Operating in that vacuum, each risk assessment team sets out to characterize risk in whatever way it sees fit. Not only do risk assessments differ on what they are assessing, but also risk assessments of an identical physical plant, compared on the same measure, are often quite dissimilar. Compare, for example, estimates of estimated annual expected fatalities for the Oxnard facility. 74, or 380 times the SAI number (which puts into question the two and three significant figures of the assessments).

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Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes, 14 by Patrick Humphreys


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